Conclusions



BUDAPEST METRO LINE 4 FEASIBILITY STUDY Oktober 1996				Conclusions
				Key issues from the Stage 2 are as follows: Staging alternatives The planning selected 7.3 km Tétényi alignment between Kelenföld and Keleti could be constructed in one or two stages: one stage completing the main alignment, two stages, as follows: one significant section from Kelenföld station to Kálvin square, linking Buda to the Pest and connecting with Metro line 3, an extra section up to Keleti station The alignment could be restricted to a partial Kelenföld-Kálvin section, constructed in one stage. A further extension beyond Kelenföld, up to Budaörs was also envisaged. Patronage forecasts Total daily boarding passengers for the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment were estimated to 474,000. The Budaörs extension will slightly increase the total daily boarding passengers to 487,000. The partial Kelenföld-Kálvin section will carry a total of 306,000 daily passengers. During peak hour, the maximal loading point, located at the river crossing was forecast to 20,800, 21,000 and 14,700 respectively. Engineering issues Rolling stock :The refined engineering issues optimised the rolling design. Complying with the passenger demand forecasts and appropriate level of service, a light rolling stock was designed (2.6 m width x 79 m length for a 5 Car train set) offering an operating capacity of 24,000 passengers per hour, per direction (5 standees/m², and 20,100 with 4 standees/m²), based on a 2 mn headway service. The technical equipment required to operate Metro line 4 were designed to allow a 90 s headway service, so as to ensure a reserve of capacity reaching 32,000 passengers per hour, per direction. Infrastructure: Taking benefit from the light rolling stock design, the horizontal and vertical profile was optimised, as well as the station location. The station platform were also optimised in relation with the rolling stock design. Economic cost analysis The overall capital cost for the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment was estimated to some 514 M ECU, representing approximately some 8% of decreasing, compared to the Stage 1 cost estimation, due essentially to the infrastructure optimisation. For the extended Budaörs-Keleti alignment and the partial Kelenföld-Kálvin section, the total capital costs were estimated to 588 M ECU and 350 M ECU respectively. The economic cost benefit analysis was based on the same assumptions as those taken within Stage 1. The results are as follows: Based on the low growth scenario, the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment has a NPV of 99 M ECU with a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) of 1.34 and yields an IRR of 6.5%. The extended alignment has a NPV of 76 M ECU with a BCR of 1.20 and yields an IRR of 6.0%. The NPV for the partial Kelenföld-Kálvin alignment is estimated at -8.74 with a BCR of 0.96 and an IRR of 4.8. The high growth scenario yields NPV of 265 M ECU, 246 M ECU and 71 M ECU with BCR of 1.92, 1.7 0 and 1.37 for the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment, extended alignment and the partial Kelenföld-Kálvin alignment respectively. The IRR for the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment is estimated at 8.3% and the extended and partial alignments yield IRR values of 7.7 and 6.6 respectively. An incremental economic analysis considered an incremental construction/operation sectioning, as follows: first the Kelenföld-Kálvin section is operated, then the line is completed up to Keleti, afterwards, the line is extended beyond Kelenföld to Budaörs. The incremental analysis pointed out the benefits of the additional section from Kálvin to Keleti. Indeed this section provides new services and relief considerably competing surface modes, especially bus line 7. Other benefits Estimates of the employment generated by the project show that construction of the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment generates some 6,400 person-years of employment during the construction period. The benefits resulting from employment generated by the construction of the metro line range from 18 M ECU (based on the low growth scenario and the partial Kelenföld-Kálvin alignment, discounted to 1996) to 28 M ECU (High growth and extended Budaörs-Keleti alignment, discounted to 1996. Urban planning effects were also examined in relation with the station implementation. As far as the main alignment is concerned, the potential development especially should concern direct station-related development at the Tétényi road/Etele road intersection and the provision that Metro line 4 could also provide the stimulus for higher density redevelopment south of Etele road. Similarly, within District VIII, station locations at Köztársaság Square and Rákóczi Square may be expected to provide a stimulus for station-related development as well as opportunities for surface level environmental improvements should also be forthcoming and the Rákóczi Square may be expected to provide a stimulus for station related development. In urban planning and development, it is concluded that the option of providing the Budaörs extension offers potential benefits and should be seriously considered. Whilst such the partial Kelenföld-Kálvin section might continue to effectively serve the Buda side and enable the inner city to be accessed via interchange of Kálvin square, the necessary socio-economic/environmental stimulus which Metro would provide to District VIII and the wider city centre area would be absent and the direct linkage to Metro line 2, heavy rail and the eastern city suburbs and hinterland omitted. In planning and development terms, all of this would be a considerable disadvantage and it is concluded that this option should not be pursued further. Environmental impacts regarding noise, air pollution, vibrations and cultural /historical heritage impacts were carefully examined. Because of the worsening of the air pollution in the next future years, the Metro line 4 implementation would hardly change the air pollution level. Nevertheless, it would significantly decrease the noise level and slightly change the vibration level. As far as the historical heritage is concerned, some minor risks lie on potential disruption of the thermal springs servicing the Gellért establishment during the construction period. Finally, particular attention should be paid during the construction, regarding some buildings and areas under the protected monument classification: Keleti station, Köztársaság square, Rákóczi square, the building façades of Bartók Béla road and Kosztolányi square. Financial appraisal The financial appraisal highlighted the maximum nominal annual contribution required under each staging alternative to repay the principal and interest taking account operating surplus and BKV contribution. That is, for the main Kelenföld-Keleti alignment, the Municipality and or Government will need to pay in a single year up to 46M ECU to finance the debt on the metro extension. This level of debt funding is beyond the scope of the Municipality alone which can probably support 20M ECU in the years concerned. The total contribution that either the Municipality and or Government will need to make up to the date when the line becomes self-financing are shown in details in the above Table D-12. Comment on the alignment staging The one stage Kelenföld - Keleti alignment seems more appropriate in terms of urban and transport planning, engineering aspects and benefits, the eastern section up to Kálvin square being of major importance.